JOURNAL TRANSCRIPT
2.3 Coca/cocaine
2.3.1 Production Cultivation The global area under coca cultivation decreased by 5% from 167,600 ha in 2008 to 158,800 ha in 2009, mainly due to a significant decrease in Colombia, which was not offset by increases in Peru and the Plurinational State of Bolivia. This is about the same level of cultivation as during the period 2003 to 2006. Colombia remained the country with the largest area under coca cultivation but the distance to the second largest, Peru, has shrunk due to two consecutive years of decreases in Colombia and increases in Peru over the same period.
Coca cultivation in the Plurinational State of Bolivia in 2009 remained by and large at the 2008 level with only a slight increase of 1% to 30,900 ha. The increase took place in both large growing regions, the Yungas of La Paz and Chapare. Eradication reports from Ecuador indicated the existence of small-scale coca cultivation. However, surveys implemented by UNODC in cooperation with the Government of Ecuador in 2006 and 2008 confirmed that the level of coca cultivation was insignificant.1 Fig. 132: Global coca bush cultivation (ha), 1995-2009 Source: see Table ‘Global illicit cultivation of coca bush and production of coca leaf and cocaine, 1995-2009’
In Colombia, the area under coca cultivation decreased for a third year to 68,000 ha, a 16% decrease over 2008. Most of the reduction took place in the departments of Putumayo, Nariño and Antioquía.
200,000 175,000 Hectares
In 2009, coca cultivation in Peru increased by 7% from 2008 and reached 59,900 ha. Peru remained the second largest coca cultivating country, after Colombia. This is the country’s third consecutive increase in three years. The cultivation level is 55% or 21,200 ha more than in 1999, when coca cultivation was at its lowest level in the last two decades at 38,700 ha. The area under cultivation in the three main growing regions Alto Huallaga, Apurímac-Ene and La Convención-Lares, where large parts are already covered with coca plantations, increased only slightly. Most of the increase in absolute and percentage terms took place in smaller growing regions such as Aguaytía, Inambari-Tambopata and Palcazú-PichisPachitea, which have seen a considerable expansion of the area under coca cultivation since 2004.
225,000
150,000 125,000 100,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 C olombia
1
P eru
B olivia
The surveys covered provinces in the north of Ecuador bordering Colombia.
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World Drug Report 2010
Table 19: Global illicit cultivation of coca bush and production of coca leaf and cocaine, 1995-2009 1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
25,400
27,500
28,900
2008
2009
167,600
158,800
CULTIVATION OF COCA BUSH IN HECTARES (a) Bolivia (b) Colombia
(c)
Peru (d) Total
48,600
48,100
45,800
38,000
21,800
14,600
19,900
21,600
23,600
27,700
50,900
67,200
79,400
101,800
160,100
163,300
144,800
102,000
86,000
80,000
86,000
78,000
99,000
115,300
94,400
68,800
51,000
38,700
43,400
46,200
46,700
44,200
50,300
48,200
51,400
53,700
214,800 209,700 194,000
190,800
220,600
221,300
210,900
170,300
153,800
158,000
159,600
156,900
181,600
POTENTIAL PRODUCTION OF DRY COCA LEAF IN METRIC TONS (e) Bolivia(f)
85,000 (g)
Colombia
75,100
70,100
52,900
22,800
13,400
20,200
19,800
27,800
38,000
28,200
33,200
36,400
80,900 108,900 129,500
165,900
261,000
266,200
236,000
222,100
186,050
164,280
164,280
154,130
154,000
183,600 174,700 130,600
95,600
69,200
46,200
49,300
52,500
72,800
101,000
97,000
105,100
107,800
94
104
Colombia (fresh coca leaf)(h) Peru (i)
552,800
POTENTIAL MANUFACTURE OF COCAINE IN METRIC TONS (j) Bolivia (b) Colombia Peru
(k)
(l)
Total
240
215
200
150
70
43
60
60
79
98
80
230
300
350
435
680
695
617
580
550
680
680
660
630
460
435
325
240
175
141
150
160
230
270
260
280
290
930
950
875
825
925
879
827
800
859
1,048
1,020
1,034
1,024
450
410
865
*
* Due to the ongoing review of conversion factors, no point estimate of the level of cocaine production could be provided for 2009. Because of the uncertainty on the level of total potential cocaine production, the 2009 figure was estimated as a range (842-1,111 mt). For more detailed information, see Statistical Annex (4.1.1). It should be noted that the trend estimate of cocaine production between 2008 and 2009 indicate a stable situation. a) Potentially harvestable, after eradication. (b) Sources: 1995-2002: CICAD and US Department of State, International Narcotics Control Strategy Report. For the region Yungas of La Paz since 2002, for all regions since 2003: National Illicit Crop Monitoring System supported by UNODC. Cocaine production: Before 2003, CICAD and US Department of State. Since 2003, own calculations based on UNODC (Yungas of La Paz) and DEA (Chapare) coca leaf yield surveys and DEA conversion factors from leaf to cocaine HCl (currently under review). (c) Sources: 1995-1998: CICAD and US Department of State, International Narcotics Control Strategy Report; since 1999: National Illicit Crop Monitoring System supported by UNODC. (d) Sources: 1995-1999: CICAD and US Department of State, International Narcotics Control Strategy Report; since 2000: National Illicit Crop Monitoring System supported by UNODC. (e) Refers to the potential coca leaf production available for cocaine production, i. e. after deducting the amount, which Governments report as being used for traditional or other purposes allowed under national law. In the absence of a standard definition of "dry coca leaf" and given considerable differences in the processing of the fresh coca leaf harvested, the figures may not always be comparable across countries. (f ) Since 2005, potential sun-dried coca leaf production available for cocaine production, estimated by the National Illicit Crop Monitoring System supported by UNODC. This figure does not include the estimated amount of coca leaf produced on 12,000 ha in the Yungas of La Paz where coca cultivation is authorized under national law. (g) Sources: 1995-2002: CICAD and US Department of State, International Narcotics Control Strategy Report. Since 2003, potential coca leaf production available for cocaine production estimated by the National Illicit Crop Monitoring System supported by UNODC. Figures refer to oven-dried coca leaf equivalents. (h) Since 2004, fresh coca leaf production figures are available based on coca leaf yield studies done by UNODC and the Government of Colombia. Similar to potential cocaine production, fresh coca leaf production in Colombia is calculated based on two-year area averages. (i) Since 2003, potential sun-dried coca leaf production available for cocaine production, estimated by the National Illicit Crop Monitoring System supported by UNODC. For the calculation of coca leaf available for cocaine production, 9,000 mt of sun-dried coca leaf were deducted, which, according to Government sources, is the amount used for traditional purposes. (j) Potential manufacture refers to the amount of 100% pure cocaine that could be produced if all coca leaves harvested from an area under coca cultivation in one year were processed into cocaine, based on the information on cocaine alkaloid content of coca leaves and efficiency of clandestine laboratories. Estimates for Bolivia and Peru take into account that not all coca leaf production is destined for cocaine production. (k) Since 2004, cocaine manufacture is calculated based on the average area under coca cultivation of the reporting year and the previous year. This is thought to be closer to the actual amount produced than a figure solely based on the year-end cultivation. Colombian cocaine manufacture estimates for 2004 and later are based on new research and cannot be directly compared with previous years. For the calculation of the 2009 cocaine manufacture new information on coca leaf yield available for some regions was used. Estimates from 2004 to 2008 were revised in 2010 based on more detailed information on the average cocaine base purity (81%) and the cocaine base to HCl conversion ratio (1:1) available from DEA scientific studies. (l) Figures from 2003 to 2005 were revised in 2007 based on updated information available on the amount of coca leaf necessary to produce one kilogram of cocaine HCl. Estimates based on conversion factors from leaf to cocaine HCl from DEA scientific studies (currently under review).
162
2. Drug statistics and trends Coca/cocaine
Table 20: Reported spraying and manual eradication of coca bush (ha), 1995-2009 Note: The Plurinational State of Bolivia: Since 2006, voluntary and forced eradication. Peru: includes voluntary and forced eradication. Source: UNODC ARQ, Government reports, US Department of State (INCSR)
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Bolivia
manual
5,493
7,512
7,000 11,620 15,353
7,653
9,395
11,839
10,089
8,437
6,073
5,070
6,269
5,484
6,341
Colombia
manual
1,487
4,057
2,262
3,495
1,745
2,762
4,219
6,234
31,980
43,051
66,805
95,634
60,557
3,126
1,046
spraying 23,915 18,519 41,861 66,029 43,112 58,073 94,153 130,364 132,817 136,552 138,775 172,026 153,134 133,496 104,772 Peru
manual
Ecuador
manual
Venezuela manual
1,259
181
18
3,462
0
7,834 14,733
0
0
6,208
38
6,436
7,134
47
0
Production
Cocaine HCl production estimates for Colombia were revised, reflecting the availability of more detailed information on specific elements of the conversion process from the DEA scientific studies. This led to a slight increase in the estimated level of potential cocaine production since 2004. However, potential cocaine production in Colombia declined by 9% from 450 mt in 2008 to 410 mt in 2009.3 In the absence of a point estimate for the level of potential cocaine production in 2009, estimates of coca leaf production can provide additional information on recent illicit production trends. To be able to compare coca leaf production across countries, fresh coca leaf production estimates were used where available (Colombia) or cal2 3
For more detailed information, see Annex ‘The process of estimating the production of pure cocaine HCL.’ For more details, see Ibid.
0
10,399
12,237
12,688
12,072
10,143
10,025
4
18
9
12
12
6
118
40
0
0
0
Fig. 133: Global potential production of fresh coca leaf available for cocaine production (mt), 2004-2009 Source: National monitoring systems supported by UNODC. For more details see Table ‘Global illicit cultivation of coca bush and production of coca leaf and cocaine, 1995-2009’
Metric tons
Due to the ongoing review of conversion factors from coca leaves to 100% pure cocaine HCl used to estimate the potential cocaine production in the Plurinational State of Bolivia and Peru, no point estimate of the level of cocaine production could be provided for these countries in 2009. Because of this uncertainty, global cocaine production in 2009 was estimated as a range (842-1,111 mt).2 The uncertainty concerning conversion factors from leaves to cocaine affects the level of cocaine production in 2009, but other years prior to 2009 may be affected as well. Indeed, production figures provided by UNODC between 2005 and 2009 may be revised once more precise estimates can be elaborated for the conversion factors, which depend on the alkaloid content of the leaves and laboratory efficiency. They do not show major changes from one year to another. Thus, in spite of the uncertainty around the level of the 2009 estimates it can be noted that the total production trend between 2008 to 2009 remained stable.
11,312
1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2004
2005
C olombia
2006
2007 P eru
2008
2009 B olivia
culated from sun-dried leaf production (Plurinational State of Bolivia and Peru) using a conversion factor.4 Global potential production of fresh coca leaf was relatively stable between 2004 and 2007 at about 850,000 mt, but declined significantly between 2007 and 2008 (by 14%) and again between 2008 and 2009 (by 4%) to just over 700,000 mt. Between 2004 and 2009, Colombia always accounted for the largest share of coca leaf production. However, while Colombia contributed almost two thirds (63%) of total production in 2004, in 2009, it accounted for less than half (48%). Peru’s share grew from 27% in 2004 to 39% in 2009, due to a decline in coca leaf production in Colombia in absolute terms and an increase in production in Peru over the same period. 4
The average weight loss from fresh to sun-dried leaf measured in UNODC’s yield studies ranged from 52% (Bolivia, Yungas of La Paz) to 57% (average Peru). Only the amount of coca leaves estimated to be available for cocaine production was included in the estimate. More details see Table ‘Global illicit cultivation of coca bush and production of coca leaf and cocaine, 1995-2009.’
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World Drug Report 2010
Measuring coca leaf yield Three elements are needed to estimate cocaine production each year: i) number of hectares under coca leaf cultivation; ii) annual coca leaf yield (quantity of leaves harvested per hectare in a year); and iii) alkaloid content of the leaves and efficiency of clandestine laboratories to extract these alkaloids, which determine the quantity of coca leaves needed to produce pure cocaine hydrochloride (HCl). Coca leaf yield is the element that probably shows the highest variation since it is affected by unpredictable factors such as weather, plant diseases, as well as eradication activities. The effect of these factors varies not only from year to year and during the course of a year but also from one cultivating region to the other. Thus, the annual coca leaf yield can be estimated with less certainty than the other elements. Since 2004, UNODC, in cooperation with the respective Governments, undertook coca leaf yield studies in many coca growing regions in the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Colombia and Peru. The core element of these studies is the controlled harvest of mature coca fields. For this purpose, sample plots are selected randomly among a set of fields which are also randomly selected among all fields under coca leaf cultivation. All coca leaves in the sampled plots are harvested and weighed on the spot. In the Plurinational State of Bolivia and Peru, where farmers sun-dry coca leaves after the harvest, an additional weight measurement is taken after the sun-drying. The weight of the harvested coca leaves divided by the area of the sample plots is the yield per hectare of that plot (for one harvest). Yield measurements from all plots and fields are used to determine the per hectare yield in the studied area. The coca bush allows several harvests per year, with four being a typical number. Depending on seasonal variations, such as periods with higher precipitation or variations in farming practices (application of fertilizer and/or irrigation) or counter-narcotics activities such as spraying with herbicide, the yield varies from harvest to harvest. These variations have to be taken into account. Ideally, all harvests in the selected plots should be measured. However, often the security situation in coca cultivation regions does not allow for a return to sample fields for further measurements. Then, information from farmers’ interviews can be used to estimate the number and yield of past harvests. The annual yield is the sum of all coca leaf yields in the course of one year. Due to the different post-harvest processing methods in the Andean countries, coca leaf yield and production figures can be expressed in fresh, sun-dry or oven-dry leaf. Fresh coca leaf is typically used in Colombia, where the leaves are processed directly after harvesting to extract the alkaloids, often by the farmers themselves. In the Plurinational State of Bolivia and Peru, farmers dry the harvested coca leaves in a process referred to as sun- or air-drying before the alkaloids are extracted. Sun-drying is also used to produce coca leaves for traditional uses such as tea preparation and mastication (chewing). Sun-drying reduces the weight of the fresh leaves by more than 50%. It makes transportation easier and increases the shelf life of the coca leaves. Oven-dry weight is a standard that allows comparing coca leaf yields across countries with different post-harvest processing methods. Coca leaves are dried in an oven to extract moisture until their weight is stable. This method requires a scientific laboratory. After oven-drying, coca leaves have only about one third of their fresh weight. Total cocaine production can be estimated by determining the cocaine alkaloid content of coca leaves and multiplying it with the total coca leaf production estimated from yield and cultivation surveys. As clandestine laboratories are not able to extract 100% of the cocaine alkaloids contained in the leaf, a factor representing the efficiency of these laboratories is applied. Depending on the extraction method used, clandestine laboratories can extract between 40% and 80% of the alkaloids present in the coca leaves. Sources: United Nations International Drug Control Programme, Guidelines for yield assessment of opium gum and coca leaf from brief field visits New York, 2001; US Government, DEA Studies, 1993-2005.
Clandestine laboratories In 2008, Governments reported the detection of 9,730 clandestine installations (‘laboratories’) involved in coca processing, compared to 7,245 in 2007. As in past years, about 4% of the total installations detected were producing cocaine HCl. Over 99% of coca processing laboratories were located in the three coca cultivating countries, Plurinational State of Bolivia, Colombia and
164
Peru. Over the last four years, there was a significant increase in coca processing laboratories reported destroyed in these countries and also worldwide. In 2008, cocaine laboratories were also reported from other countries in South America, such as Argentina (20), the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (10), Chile (4) and Ecuador (3). Outside South America, Spain (25), the Netherlands (4), the Republic of Moldova (1)
2. Drug statistics and trends Coca/cocaine
Table 21: Clandestine coca processing installations, 2005-2008 Note: Previous years’ figures were revised based on updated information received from Governments.
Source: UNODC ARQ, Government reports
2005
2006
2007
2008
Cocaine paste/base producing installations
5,690
6,849
6,930
9,341
Percentage of coca processing installations detected in coca cultivating countries
>99%
>99%
>99%
>99%
Cocaine HCl producing laboratories
212
244
315
389
Cocaine HCl labs as % of total installations
4%
3%
4%
4%
Cocaine HCl labs in coca cultivating countries
166
215
308
322
5,902
7,093
7,245
9,730
Total coca processing installations detected
and Greece (1) reported the detection of cocaine laboratories. Preliminary reports from Governments of countries with coca cultivation indicate that in 2009, the number of clandestine coca processing laboratories detected was almost as high as in 2008, and significantly higher than 2005-2007.
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World Drug Report 2010
2.3.2 Seizures Fig. 135: Trend in South American cocaine seizures (excluding Colombia), 2007-2008 Source: UNODC ARQ/DELTA
40 35
More cocaine stopped at the source
2007 2008
+6% +62%
30 Metric tons
Following a significant increase over the period 20022005, global cocaine seizure totals have followed a stable trend, amounting to 712 mt in 2007 and 711 mt in 2008. Seizures continued to be concentrated in the Americas and Europe. However, the transition from 2007 to 2008 brought about a geographical shift in seizures towards the source countries for cocaine. Seizures in South America accounted for 59% of the global total for 2008, compared with 45% in 2007. This was mainly due to increases in several South American countries, notably Colombia, and simultaneous decreases in North America and Europe.
+12% +96%
25 +21% 20 15
+51%
-12%
10 5
prevalent in South America was Chile, which registered a decrease of 12%. Seizures in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela remained essentially stable.
Fig. 134: Comparison of cocaine seizures in South America and other regions, 2000-2008 Source: UNODC ARQ/DELTA
South America
Rest of the world North America
2000
South America
2001 2002
West and Central Europe Rest of the world
2003 2004 2005
United States
2006
Colombia
2007 2008 -450 450
-300 300
-150 150
0
Metric tons
166
Chile
Argentina
Brazil
Peru
Ecuador
Bolivia
0 Venezuela
Cocaine seizures in South America reached record levels in 2008, amounting to 418 mt (cocaine base and salts) – almost one third more than the level in 2007 (322 mt). In absolute terms, the largest increase from 2007 was by far the one registered in Colombia (an increase of 61.9 mt). In relative terms, significant increases were also recorded in Peru (where seizures almost doubled), the Plurinational State of Bolivia (where seizures rose by 62%), Argentina (51%), Brazil (21%) and Ecuador (12%). One exception to the generally increasing trend
150
300
450
2. Drug statistics and trends Coca/cocaine
Fig. 136: Cocaine seizures in Colombia and the United States, 2000-2008 Source: UNODC ARQ/DELTA
180 Cocaine seized in US (tons)
300 250
Tons
200 150 100 50
L ine of bes t fit 2004 (2000-2007)
170 160
2007
150
2006
140 130 120 110
2002
70
120
170
220
270
Coc aine s eized in Colombia (tons )
United States
From 2002 onwards, Colombia and the United States consistently registered the largest and second largest annual cocaine (base and salts) seizures worldwide, respectively. Over the 2002-2007 period, cocaine seizures in the United States, the country with the largest consumer market for cocaine, were in line with those in Colombia, the country with the largest manufacture of cocaine, to a remarkable degree (with a correlation coefficient of 0.96). However, the trends in the two countries diverged in 2008. Seizures in Colombia reached record levels, rising from 195 mt in 2007 to 257 mt5 in 2008, while seizures in the United States fell sharply, from 148 mt in 2007 to 98 mt in 2008 (-34%).
2008
2000
90
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
C olom bia
2003
2001
100 0
2005
Mexico continued to be the key transit country for large quantities of cocaine trafficked from the Andean region to the United States. In line with the trend in the United States, cocaine seizures in Mexico fell sharply in 2008, amounting to 19.3 mt. Cocaine seizures by authorities in the United States along the border with Mexico followed a generally decreasing trend between the last quarter of 2005 and the second quarter of 2008,6 suggesting that the amount of cocaine reaching the United States through the border with Mexico was in decline. In fact, between 2006 and 2008, cocaine seizures along this border fell by more than 40%. Partial data suggests that the decreased level was essentially sustained into
Fig. 137: Cocaine seizures in Europe, 1998-2008 Source: UNODC ARQ/DELTA 140
R es t of E urope Ireland
120
Germany Tons
100
-48%
B elgium Italy
80
United Kingdom 60
F ranc e P ortugal
40
Netherlands
20
S pain 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
5
Observatorio de Drogas de Colombia. Data for Colombia from the ARQ (part III) for 2008 were not available.
6
National Drug Intelligence Center, United States Department of Justice, National Drug Threat Assessment 2009, December 2008.
167
2. Drug statistics and trends Coca/cocaine
Fig. 140: Frequency distribution of cocaine purities in the United Kingdom, January-September 2009
* This refers to the source of the cocaine as far back as it could be traced by the reporting countries.
Source: Forensic Science Service, UK
Afric a C entral Americ a R es t of the world
An analysis of cocaine consignments seized in Europe based on the UNODC individual drug seizure database confirms this picture. Among those cases in which the point of origin was identified, the proportion of cases in which African countries (or Africa as a whole) were named as the point of origin was negligible until 2002, climbed to 34% by 2007 but fell back to 20% in 2008. Increased cocaine trafficking in Australia Cocaine seizures in Australia rose steadily over the period 2005-2008, from 87.5 kg in 2005 to 930 kg in 2008. With reference to the period 1 July 2007 – 30 June 2008, Australia8 mentioned the threat arising from trafficking and subsequent trans-shipment of cocaine from Canada, as well as the growth in trafficking through China (including Hong Kong). China has also reported a perceived increase in the use of cocaine in 2008. Interception rate Estimating the global interception rate for cocaine depends on a good understanding of the global supply of cocaine as well as the total amount of cocaine seized. ARQ submitted by Australia for 2008.
15% 90-100
80-89
70-79
60-69
50-59
40-49
0%
0% 0%
2%
15%
4%
5%
4%
10%
23%
25%
27%
15%
C aribbean S outh Americ a
ever, seizure data suggest that this pattern may have started to subside. Cocaine seizures in West and Central Africa increased from 98 kg in 2002 to 4.6 mt in 2007, but in 2008 declined to 2.3 mt.
8
20%
30-39
20% 2008
2007
2006 12%
2003
2002
2001
2000
0%
2005 9%
10%
2004
16%
20%
34%
30%
15%
40%
5% 5% 5% 3% 8% 2%
50%
25%
20-19
60%
30%
2%
Percentage
70%
35%
10-19
80%
40%
2%
90%
45%
0-9
100%
Proportion of total seizures (percentage)
Source: UNODC Individual Drug Seizures database
38%
Fig. 139: Distribution of number of cocaine seizure cases in Europe, by transit/ origin country,* 2000-2008.
P urity (perc entage) P olic e s eizures
B order agenc y s eizures
Given the time lag incurred between cultivation of coca bush, harvesting, processing and trafficking, in a given year, supply in a consumer market such as Europe may be linked to production occurring in previous years. Moreover, the theoretical amount of pure cocaine seized can only be determined by taking into account the purity of seizures, which may vary considerably across countries and according to various factors, such as the size of the transaction (level of sale - retail versus wholesale) and the place of seizure (border versus domestic). Taking into account these considerations, UNODC estimates an interception rate range of 37%-50%9 for cocaine in 2008.10 This is significantly higher than the corresponding rates for opiates, possibly due to the fact that a significant proportion of seizures is made in or close to the source countries. The range drops to 27%-33% if seizures in the three producing countries, Colombia, the Plurinational State of Bolivia and Peru are excluded. 9
This is calculated as the ratio of global seizures to global supply. Global seizures are adjusted for purity according to a weighted average, and include cocaine base, cocaine salts, coca paste and crack cocaine (but not coca leaf ). Global supply is estimated by the average cocaine production in the preceding two years. The lower end of the range is obtained by considering retail purities only, and the upper end by considering wholesale purities only. 10 In previous years, UNODC estimated a single interception rate, adjusting global seizures for purity using an unweighted average of all purity data reported by Member States (retail and wholesale). This quantity was then expressed as a percentage of the cocaine production in the same year. This method produces an estimate of 42% for the year 2008.
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World Drug Report 2010
2.3.3 Prices
aWeighted average of 18 countries.
Sources: National monitoring systems in the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Colombia and Peru and UNODC ARQ
100,000
10,000
1,000
P eru, farm-gate pric e of c oc a pas te (P B C )
Source: UNODC ARQ
US wholes ale pric e of c oc aine Wes tern E urope, wholes ale pric eª 171
180 160
148
In the United States, after a sharp increase in prices and decrease in purity, 2009 brought the first signs of stabilization
156
US$/g
140 120 100 80 60
60 40
24 27
36 39
Pakistan
Saudi Arabia
Russian Federation
Spain
Europe1,3
Canada
Togo
USA2
Ghana2
Colombia Rest of South America1 Central America
Peru
1 Simple average 2 Average of minimum and maximum price 3 Excluding Spain and the Russian Federation
170
49
6.6 8.1 1.3 2.3 2.3
0
Bolivia
20
2008
B olivia (P lurinational S tate of), s treet pric e of c oc aine bas e in produc ing regions C olombia, farm-gate pric e of c oc a pas te
Fig. 141: Cocaine wholesale prices worldwide, 2008
200
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
100 2000
A comparison of prices in the producer countries and major consumer markets shows a markup of approximately 30 times between prices of coca derivatives in the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Colombia and Peru and cocaine wholesale prices in the United States, and 60 times in the case of Europe.
Fig. 142: Comparison of coca derivative prices in producing countries and consumer markets, 2000-2008 (US dollars)
US$/Kg (logarithmic scale)
Cocaine prices in 2008 reflected the well-known trafficking routes from South America to North America and Europe. The lowest wholesale prices were to be found in Peru, the Plurinational State of Bolivia and Colombia. Prices were, on average, noticeably higher in the rest of South America and slightly higher in Central America and the Caribbean. There was a clear markup in prices outside Latin America and the Caribbean. Wholesale prices in West Africa were significantly higher, but lower than prices in Europe. The wholesale price in Spain was significantly lower than the average in Europe, possibly reflecting Spain’s role as a major point of entry for cocaine into the European market. Very high wholesale prices were registered in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the Russian Federation. The markup from wholesale to retail price can be more clearly observed when typical prices are adjusted by typical purities.
In the United States, price and purity data confirmed the reduced availability of cocaine. Data from the US Drug Enforcement Agency point to a distinct transition between the fourth quarter of 2007 and the fourth quarter of 2008, with purity dropping by 27% and the price per pure gram of cocaine rising by 72%, suggesting a shortage of cocaine in the US market. The increased price level was sustained into the third quarter of 2009,11 when it appeared to stabilize at the higher levels.
11 US Department of Justice, National Drug Threat Assessment 2010. Based on data extracted from System To Retrieve Information on Drug Evidence (STRIDE).
2. Drug statistics and trends Coca/cocaine
Fig. 143: Purity-adjusted and non-adjusted cocaine retail and wholesale prices in US dollars, 2008 (log-log scale) Note: On a linear scale, the slope of the line of best fit (through the origin) for purity-adjusted prices is 2.94. This means that, overall, there is a markup in price of 194% from wholesale to retail level.
Retail price, US dollars per gram, (log scale)
Source: UNODC ARQ
1,000
y = 2.94x Latin America and Caribbean, unadjusted (purity not available)
y=x
Other countries, purity adjusted
100
Other countries, unadjusted, purity available Other countries, unadjusted, purity not available
10
Line of best fit (adjusted prices) Line of nil markup 1 1
10
100
1,000
Wholesale price, US dollars per gram (log scale)
Mixed picture in Europe
Fig. 144: Cocaine prices and purities in the United States, 2006-2009 (STRIDE*)
Prices per pure gram of cocaine for European countries were generally not available. On average,12 European cocaine prices, expressed in euro and adjusted for inflation (but not for purity), displayed a decreasing trend over the period 2006-2008, at both the retail and wholesale levels. However, over the same period, prices increased when expressed in dollars and adjusted for inflation, suggesting that the trend has been more sensitive to the exchange rate between US dollar and euro than changes in the market.
*STRIDE is a database of drug exhibits maintained by the US Drug Enforcement Administration. The values reported here represent averages of all cocaine purchases in the database. Although not collected as a representative sample of the US market, STRIDE data reflect the best information available available on changes in cocaine price and purity in the US market.
Source: National Drug Threat Assessment 2010, United States Department of Justice
$174 60 50
$150 45% $100
46% 40
$115
30 20
$50 10 0 Jul-Sep 09
Jan-Mar 09
Jul-Sep 08
Jan-Mar 08
Jul-Sep 07
Jan-Mar 07
Jul-Sep 06
$0 Jan-Mar 06
Mean price per pure gram (US dollars)
70
$198
61%
$200
Mean purity (percentage)
80
$250
A comparison of purity- and inflation-adjusted prices13 with cocaine seizures in selected European countries suggests a certain sensitivity of prices - notably at the retail level - to success in interdiction, as measured by seizure totals. In 2006, European seizures peaked, along with the purity- and inflation-adjusted retail price in France, Germany and the United Kingdom. This was due to a change in purity in some cases and a change in bulk price in other cases. Since 2006, the purity- and inflation-adjusted retail price declined, in line with seizure totals. One possible explanation for the correlation between the trends in price and seizures could be related to the effect of law enforcement activities: the stronger the effect of law enforcement, the higher are the amounts seized and the associated risk of trafficking which take the price to a higher level.14
Mean pric e per pure gram (left axis ) Mean purity (right axis ) 12 Weighted average of 18 European countries, based on ARQ, data from Europol and UNODC estimates; see UNODC, World Drug Report 2009. 13 UNODC estimates based on reported prices and purities. 14 In contrast, over the period 2000-2006, rising seizures in Europe
171
World Drug Report 2010
Fig. 145: Purity- and inflation-adjusted cocaine prices in selected European countries, in comparison with cocaine seizures
400
140
350
120
300
100
250 80 200 60 150 40
100
20
50 -
2002
2003
2004
2005
2007
2008
Total c oc aine s eizures in S pain, F ranc e, Germany, UK
C oc aine s eizures res t of E urope
S pain, wholes ale pric e
F ranc e, retail pric e
F ranc e, wholes ale pric e
Germany, retail pric e
Germany, wholes ale pric e
UK, retail pric e
UK, wholes ale pric e
went hand in hand with falling cocaine prices (weighted average for 18 European countries, not adjusted for purity), suggesting that seizures were reflecting the rising supply of cocaine reaching the European market.
172
2006
Seizures (tons)
Price per pure gram, 2008 Euro
Note: Purity-adjusted prices are UNODC estimates based on reported prices and purities Sources: UNODC ARQ, Europol, EMCDDA, UNODC World Drug Report 2009
2. Drug statistics and trends Coca/cocaine
2.3.4 Consumption UNODC estimates that the prevalence of cocaine use worldwide in 2008 ranged from 0.3% to 0.4% of the adult population, or between 15 and 19 million people who had used cocaine at least once in the previous year. Compared to 2007, the range shifted to lower levels, suggesting a decrease in the global number of cocaine users. This change is due to the decrease in the number of cocaine users in North America. In addition, missing data and/or absence of recent reliable estimates affect
many regions, particularly East Africa, Central Asia, the Near and Middle East and South Asia. Available qualitative information suggests that the prevalence of cocaine use is low in most parts of Asia, although Chinese experts reported a recent increase of cocaine use in their country (though starting from an almost negligible level)15 and other countries have reported increasing trafficking of cocaine in Asia.
Table 22: Estimated number of people who used cocaine at least once in the past year and prevalence among the population aged 15-64, by region, 2008
Region/subregion
Africa
Estimated number of users annually (lower)
-
Estimated number of users annually (upper)
1,020,000
-
2,670,000
Eastern Africa North Africa
Percent of population aged 15-64 (lower)
-
Percent of population aged 15-64 (upper)
0.2
-
0.5
Subregional estimate cannot be calculated 30,000
-
50,000